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Soccer ball possession betting. Ball possession in football. Requires special attention

Possession has become one of the most controversial sports football statistics, regularly mentioned in the analysis football match. It is generally accepted that high percent possession of the ball is positive moment, but to what extent should bettors take this parameter into account when calculating a team's chances of winning a match? "Rating of Bookmakers" Russifies the analytical material of the Pinnacle Sports blog on this topic.

Higher percentage of ball possession - higher chances of winning?

Facts about ball possession

The success of teams based on increased possession, such as Barcelona at club level or Spain at international level, combined with the aesthetically pleasing football shown by these teams, has led to a high percentage of ball possession becoming the dominant indicator, to which many teams aspire.

In addition, Liverpool manager Brendan Rodgers' often-quoted line that "the team that handles the ball better than the opponent, has a 79% chance of winning" is also consistent with the possession-based approach.

However, if we look at the results of recent tournaments where short-passing teams have been successful, we can see that the possession-based approach is much more complex than its proponents imply.

The current world champions, the Spaniards, flew out of the 2014 World Cup for another group stage, losing to Holland and Chile, while having more than 60% possession of the ball. In addition, their success at EURO 2012 is largely based on a victory only in the penalty shootout over the Portuguese, who had minimum percentage possession of the ball throughout the tournament.

Barcelona conquered Europe in 2008/2009 and 2010/2011, averaging 60% or more of the ball throughout the tournament, averaging around 700 passes per game. But there were Inter triumphs in 2009/2010 with an average possession rate of 45% per game (almost 33% in the final) and an average of 400 assists per game, and Chelsea's victory in 2011/2012 with an average possession of the ball 47%.

Numerous standoffs at the very high level allow you to doubt the dominant role of possession of the ball. Firstly, Chelsea's 2011/2012 win over Barcelona with 20% possession, and secondly, Real Madrid's punishment of Pep Guardiola with a 5-0 aggregate score in this year's semi-finals, with possession less than 30%. These examples are just the icing on the cake, not a large sample, but they allow us to counter Rodgers's point that all teams should strive to seize the initiative in possession of the ball, which will ensure their ultimate success.

Ball possession as an aggregate of other key statistics

The main disadvantage of raw ball possession is that it is a secondary metric based on many other primary metrics that are more relevant to a team's ultimate success.

Teams gain possession by tackling and interceptions, they gain possession through good passing, they use superior possession to create a large number scoring chances. Teams score goals by converting these chances and win victories by scoring more balls than allowed the opponent to score.

So we end up with a chain of performance at one end and ball possession at the other end, but in between there are stats based on team ability and goalscoring that are more important to the final outcome of the match. Ball possession alone is not a significant indicator of how good a team is. More important is how well the team is able to manage possession of the ball.

Highlighting the disadvantages of possession

Swansea City in their early seasons in the Premier League is a prime example the confusion that a simple measure of ball possession can cause. Welsh team were compared to Barcelona unreasonably, primarily because of their similar ball possession percentage to the Catalans.

However, while Barcelona had high possession, predominantly in the thirds of the field, and combined fast and difficult combinations to create scoring chances for world-class players, Swansea had a conservative possession, predominantly deep in their own half of the field, often playing back in penalty area, as part of a defensive tactic centered around possession of the ball to prevent the opposition from scoring.

In the 2011/2012 season, Swansea were third in the Premier League in possession and created 472 chances, while Barcelona led La Liga in possession with 626 chances. The four teams that sit around Swansea in possession statistics have created an average of 681 chances, almost 50% more than the Welsh. Swansea ended the season in a mediocre 11th place in standings.

Mourinho's approach to possession

More famous teams, especially those managed by coach Jose Mourinho, are also willing to sacrifice the ball for solid defensive play and the ability to score on counter-attacks and with standard provisions, especially in games with more technically equipped teams.

Sometimes matches are won at the expense of an opponent's mistake. Mistakes, from Mourinho's point of view, are more likely to be made by teams in possession of the ball, and therefore he is happy to give the opponent the ball and the opportunity to present his team with a gift, but at the same time tries to constantly keep the situation under control.

Mourinho's Chelsea demonstrated this tactical aspect of possession when, in 2014, his team was considered an underdog at Anfield, with only 27% possession, but they prevailed over Liverpool 2-0, with goals scored after Gerrard's error and quick counterattack.

Although he is not averse to having the ball and dictating the game against weak teams, Mourinho is always ready to adapt when faced with strong opponent. The possession stats for Liverpool vs Chelsea were already determined before the ball was first kicked, and bettors should have expected what they saw.

Pulis' pragmatic approach

Playing off the ball can often result in unattractive football and media backlash, but teams will in most cases play like this again to have best odds for a favorable result.

Tony Pulis' Stoke City are technically inferior to many Premier League rivals, so he uses frankly defensive tactics, both at home and away, combined with long passes into the opponent's half of the field following heavy pressing. This is their approach, maximizing the chances of scoring points. Virtually every one of their 56 victories under Pulis came with less than 50% of the time in possession.

Possession in itself is of little interest, the real value lies in what important events occur in the process of possession or in the absence of possession of the ball. How many chances the team created and how many chances it allowed the opponent to create, and most importantly, what quality and danger these situations were. Since these numbers are easy to calculate and correlate well with the number of goals and the end result, the need to keep track of possession statistics is eliminated. Inferences based solely on ball possession should be avoided.

True Metrics of Team Ability

The true sign of a team's ability is how effectively they create chances from possession and how well they can counter the opposition when they have the ball. A team can have more possession and even create more chances, but those chances will be worse due to poor shooting position and heavy pressure from the defense.

Chelsea's goal after the Anfield counter-attack and Ronaldo's goal before half-time in the away game against Bayern were easily beaten by the goalkeepers. These goals came from well-organized counter-attacks, and were not like the rest of the chances created, but if we look at the positions of the shots, it becomes clear that after counter-attacks, they score much more often from these positions than after positional open attacks, which are countered by a prepared defense.

So it makes more sense to draw conclusions from basic statistics such as shots in the right context, and to assume that the team in possession automatically plays excellently, and any defeat is due to bad luck alone.

Teams with little possession of the ball often have alternative goal opportunities. For example, in La Liga, the home of possession, teams with little possession score where more goals after set pieces and counterattacks than teams copying the Barcelona model.

Last season's champions, Atlético Madrid, scored a third of their goals from set pieces and counterattacks, content with just 49% of possession. This figure has dropped to 45% in the Champions League, where Atlético have already scored half of their goals from counterattacks and set pieces. In the final, they were only three minutes short of defeating their neighbors in Madrid, Real Madrid.

Possession numbers tell us little about a team's performance, and while of course teams with lots of possession can be very strong, they give the same misleading impression of all teams that advocate this approach. Possession of the ball only allows you to understand what tactics the team is likely to choose for the match.

Possession betting is the new kind rates, which appeared in the bookmaker's line recently. Due to high competition in the legal segment, bookmakers are expanding their offer in order to attract new customers and retain existing ones.

We talked about the importance of possession of the ball and its impact on the result. Now we will separately consider a bet on the percentage of ownership and figure out how to analyze this indicator.

Types of bets on possession of the ball

Victory- which of the opponents will have the ball longer. The outcome is available in duels of equal opponents. Usually, bookmakers set handicaps to equalize the chances of the parties.

Total- the office offers a certain number. You need to predict whether it is greater or less than the specified value. For example, team 1 is over 53.5%.

Ownership in between- it resembles an intermediate total. Specifies the interval to be entered. For example, team 1 - ownership of 40-50% or 45-55%.

Factors taken into account in the analysis

Statistics– for clubs like Barcelona, Bayern or PSG, the figures tend to be 70%. Estimate not the average value, but the percentage with the representatives of the TOP-5, latest commands in the standings, in extreme matches, at home and away.

Playing style– teams that prefer short passing are more likely to have the ball. With long passes, less time is given to ball control.

Main coach- some experts play second, so even with world-class players, their teams rarely control the ball for more than 50% of the playing time. These include Mourinho, Simeone, Berdyev.

Personnel losses- Let's say if high forwards do not enter the field, then players will less often make canopies and riding passes. They will have to play more passes, and this will increase the percentage of ball possession.

Motivation- for example, if this is a return match, and the club got the result in the first match, it can save energy and give the ball to the opponent. The team will close and will not let the opponent to its own penalty area. Because of this, players will have less possession of the ball than usual, and the opponent will, on the contrary, more often.

Rival- Consider who the team is up against. In the Italian championship, Juventus have 65-70% possession of the ball, but in the Champions League in a duel with Bayern, the "Turints" had 36% at home, and 31% away.

Match location– as a rule, home teams have more control of the ball, although there are exceptions.

How to place a bet?

Bookmakers sometimes place bets on statistics in a separate block. Expand the list for the tournament, or select the competition + statistics in the line. In BC Pari-Match, statistics are in the list where sports are represented.

Below bets on corners, yellow cards, fouls, shots on target and offsides, there is a bet on % possession. From the available outcomes, select the appropriate one by clicking on the odds. Press the yellow button Make a bet.

A new window will open. Enter the transaction amount and click Make a bet. In other bookmakers, the last button may be called differently, for example, Put or Make a bet.

The market margin is not high - about 7%, which is quite acceptable for additional painting.

Rate example. In the example, we put a +3 handicap on the hosts. This means Chapecoense must have more than 47% ownership for the bet to pass. If the gap is larger, the bet will not go through. The score and other indicators do not matter. Let's look at the match statistics:

The hosts own 41%, and the guests, respectively, 59%. Big difference. Unfortunately, the bet lost - it was necessary to choose the opposite option.

Few sports are as competitive as basketball. The game does not allow you to relax and unwind for a second. The attention of each player is constantly focused on the ball.

When talking about possession of the ball, it usually refers to the position of the hands on the ball and the movement of the hands while holding the ball, regardless of whether you are going to dribble, pass or throw it into the basket. Possession of the ball begins naturally with catching the ball.

During the game, you have to catch the ball in the most unexpected and difficult conditions. You need to take possession of the ball every time it is thrown at you. Therefore, regardless of the position of the hands and body, the first movement to master the ball must be confident, and the ball must be received in a position that allows you to start any action with it.

Holding the ball

First, learn how to properly hold the ball. The most comfortable position for holding the ball is shown in fig. 3. It can be seen that the fingers are evenly spaced around the ball, the bases of the palms are directed back and both hands are slightly shifted in the same direction.

One of the most important rules possession of the ball states: never hold the ball with your palms. Look at fig. 4 and remember that the ball should be loosely held by the pads of the fingers, not the palms. The palms should never touch the ball, except for a very short moment when catching.

Now, if you release the ball from the hands and leave them in exactly the same position, you will notice that they form a funnel (Fig. 5 and 6). This position of the hands helps to stop a strongly flying ball at the moment of catching and prevent it from slipping between the hands. Fingers should slow down the movement of a flying ball and serve as a kind of trap when catching.

Then you need to relax your hands, as shown in Fig. 7, spread your fingers apart and point them forward so that they are the first to touch the ball when catching. Now, keeping the position of the hands, take the ball. Feel that you are firmly in control of it with your fingertips. Practice holding the ball in this way, rotating the ball in front of you until you feel that you can control it reliably without the help of your palms.

Regardless of your level of play and position, ball possession is perhaps the most important skill in basketball.

Having mastered the technique of ball possession well, passes, hits and other game techniques will be performed quite naturally, because the ball will “listen” to you. When you don't focus on how you hold or dribble, you can more fully assess the situation on the court, "read" the defense and see all the open players.

In order to improve your ball possession technique, you need to practice the appropriate exercises. Spontaneous games in the yard are ineffective in this case.

If, for example, you want to learn how to play the guitar, you do not immediately join the group, but start by mastering the basics: chords, rhythm, etc.

So, let's take a look at some of the drills to improve ball handling.

1) Throwing from hand to hand (can be done at home). The exercise consists in quickly throwing the ball from hand to hand with your fingertips. Start by placing your hands above your head and smoothly them, continuing to throw the ball. Go down to chest level, then to waist, knees, ankles, and then slowly rise again. Keep your elbows straight and only touch the ball with your fingertips. (see video 1:27)

2) Circular movements(can be done at home). Place your feet together and swing the ball around them. Then rise higher and perform a circular motion around the waist. Then around the head. Then also, continuing to rotate the ball, lower it to the level of the waist, knees, ankles. Etc. Again, try to touch the ball with only your fingertips. (see video 0:45)

3) "Eights". Place one foot in front of you and spin the ball around it. Then around the second leg. Then spread your legs wider, holding the ball in front of you and begin to twist the ball "eight" between your legs. The gaze is directed forward. Don't let the ball fall. Change direction after 30 seconds. (see video 2:51)

4) Circular dribbling. With your right hand, pass the ball around your right leg, hitting it on the floor so that it bounces no more than 10-12 cm. 10 turns clockwise, 10 counterclockwise. Then switch arms and legs.

5) Dribbling "eight". Similar to previous exercise, but the ball must pass between the legs along the trajectory of the "eight". Hands change as the ball passes from one foot to the other. (see video 3:00)

6) Keeping in place. Complete 50 High Leads right hand, protecting the ball with his left. Then 50 low dribbles with the same hand. Then the same with the left hand.

7) Drop the ball. Place the ball between your legs and lift it up with both hands. Left hand behind the left foot, right - in front right foot. Release the ball, let it hit the ground once. Quickly change the position of the hands and catch the ball after the bounce (the left hand should be in front of the left foot, and the right hand behind the right foot). Drop it again and catch it again by switching hands. Repeat these movements for some time.

During practice, pay attention to the following points:

1. Keep your head up, do not look at the ball. During the game, you can't afford it, so don't do it during practice either.

2. Knees bent, back straight. The lower you dribble the ball, the safer it is. Try to get low enough.

3. Use your free hand as a "fence" from your opponents. Do not forget that you can push them away with your hand when trying to intercept the ball.

4. Touch the ball with your fingertips only. High-class professionals have full control of the ball with their fingertips, without touching it with their palms.

5. Work on speed. During practice, you can increase your speed until you lose control of the ball. This will be a good preparation for a high-speed game.

Today all over the world admire the football shown by the Spanish national team, Barcelona and others. spanish clubs. Their tactics are based on long-term control of the ball.

Your opinion on what aspects in the preparation young football players attention must be paid in order to similar results, is divisible former coach Real Madrid Jesus Gutierrez. We present excerpts from his book "Possession of the ball. Play Spanish football."

BALL POSSESSION DETERMINES 90% OF SUCCESS

WHY DO YOUR BALL POSSESSION IN TRAINING

The main reason for practicing ball possession for training is the maximum proximity of this aspect to real game situations. In these situations, players under pressure from the opponent must see the problem, analyze it, find a solution and execute it. Isn't that what happens in every match? Although, perhaps there are good arguments for honing technique in training with the help of "choreographic" exercises.

This method is used by many football clubs Spain in the preparation of young football players, because this is exactly what they will have to face during official games. And it is better to play on a large part of the field with large quantity players than to hold small two-way games, because this, again, repeats real game moments. The idea is that 22 players take part in the game. And the more the number of players in training is close to this number, the more real game situation will be created.

In most games, regardless of the teams playing, possession of the ball changes quite often from one team to another. The team that loses the ball also loses the initiative. Therefore, in order to regain control of the game, she must regain possession of the ball as quickly as possible. These game moments are crucial in the development of players' football skills. The more players that take part in the training, the faster they have to make decisions and apply their technical skills. Isn't that what happens during matches?

SOLUTIONS, SOLUTIONS, SOLUTIONS

Indeed, players involved in a game with a large number of players must be able to make instant decisions. The ability to choose correct option decisions in specific situation is decisive in the preparation of football players. Those who first receive the ball, and only then begin to decide what to do with it, are unlikely to succeed. On the contrary, those who know what they will do with the ball before it has even begun to approach them and have the necessary technical skills will be able to play football at a high level. This is one of the aspects that great football players have. Those who can predict the actions of the opponent, see the location of the players of their team, perform high-quality and accurate technique. Therefore, young football players must learn to think before they receive the ball, and in order to do this, they must be constantly immersed in such situations.

WE ALL LEARN

One of the main aspects of training young footballers is that they must take responsibility for their own learning. As writes Horst Wayne:“In modern effective football training, the coach/instructor is replaced by a mentor/teacher who allows the players to build their own training”. Coaches should not dictate to the players every action. Instead, let them experiment and find solutions for themselves. This technique will bear fruit at the end of a long stage of preparation of football players, even if at the beginning of the journey they make many mistakes. And today many must learn how to use it effectively. football coaches. The mentor/teacher should be sensitive to the level of difficulty and make adjustments to the learning process as needed, allowing players enough time to familiarize themselves with all situations.

DEFENSE AND ATTACK GO HAND IN HAND

Longtime director football academy Real Madrid Alberto Giraldes declares: “For coaches who build an attacking game based on possession, it is important to understand that the team is most vulnerable at the moment the ball is lost. Thus, the loss of control of the ball should prompt immediate action to recover it.”. Therefore, football training must include situations that not only allow players to enjoy possession of the ball, but also force them to make an effort to recover the ball when it is lost. Football training similar to the proposed one, allow you to simultaneously work out both attacking and defensive actions.

Speaking of the Real Madrid Football Academy, Giraldes says: "We don't set our players to act instinctively, in a forceful manner and with energy... What we want is for the players to think".

KEEP YOUR CASUAL ENVIRONMENT

Most children start playing football for fun. Some of the "advanced" coaches/instructors are so overwhelmed by the urge to pass on their knowledge to the players that they constantly interrupt drills and practice to get the players to know what they know. They are not given to understand that you can learn in the game. How often have you witnessed situations when football players stand in line to perform an exercise at the direction of the coach, which they will absolutely not need in the game. In Spain, for many years the emphasis in preparing football players has been on self-education, self-motivation and hard work in training, while maintaining a relaxed atmosphere. We are now receiving dividends from this approach in full. Games with a large number of participants allow you to implement all these aspects of the preparation of football players.

COMPETITIVE ELEMENTS

Most coaches agree with the statement that winning the game is not the most important thing in the preparation of young football players. Usually at a young age it is more valuable to learn how to play football well than to win 3 points for a victory. Thus, one should always focus on a good game and lessons in mastering the tactics of football week after week.

Below is an example of a possible organization of the game to practice possession of the ball.

GAME ON THE FIELD WITH 3 ZONES

OBJECTIVE: To improve team possession of the ball, the use of the entire width and depth of the field and the organization of the development of the attack

A platform of at least half the size of the field, divided into 3 equal zones.

There are 2 teams of 9 players each.

Each team attacks one side of the field and defends the other.

A team wins a point if it manages to deliver the ball from its own endline to the opponent's endline without loss, making at least one pass in each zone.

Every time a team intercepts the ball, they must take it to their own endline and attack from there.

The offside rule only applies to the first pass to the offensive zone.