For newbies

Goal in the last minutes of the game. When to bet on a goal in the last minutes? When called to score a goal in the last minutes

Many bookmakers offer to bet on goals in certain intervals of matches. You can bet both during the matches and before they start. If we carefully look at the statistics of the distribution of goals, we will see that most of them are scored in the last segment of the matches. For example, let's take the statistics of goals in the Bundesliga, the Spanish and English championships.

We see that some teams played more than 40% of the matches in which they scored goals in the last 15 minutes of regular time. For many teams, this figure exceeds 30%.

We will bet on goal in the last 15 minutes of the game offline.

We will bet on matches in which the opponents strike the end of the second half. As a rule, these are teams that play open football, which do not know how to play defensively. Of these stand out:

Werder in the 2000s;
Arsenal;
Borussia D;
Barcelona;
Ajax;
Freiburg;
MJ;
MS;
Levante.

Our task is to find matches involving teams that have at least 30% of the meetings in which they scored goals from the 76th to the 90th minute. Since we need at least one goal from any team, then its probability will be from 60%. If we translate it into odds per goal in the last 15 minutes, we get a value of 1.66.

Quotes of offices for such an event, as a rule, are higher:

How to choose matches for goal strategy in the last 15 minutes

When selecting potential candidates for the chosen strategy, it is necessary to take into account the motivation of the teams. Well, if the position in the standings obliges both teams to play attacking football. For example, one is claiming a prize-winning place or getting into the European Cup zone, while the other is fighting for survival. A draw doesn't suit anyone. The confrontation can develop in several scenarios:

In the first half, one of the teams achieves an advantage of 1 or more goals. This means that the second will be forced to go on the attack with large forces. As a result, either score or concede in a counterattack. The probability of a goal in the final segment of the meeting increases.
The first half ends in a draw. Both teams are not satisfied with this outcome, and they will expose the rear in the second half of the meeting in order to score a goal. The chances of seeing the ball in the net in the last 15 minutes are high.
By the end of the meeting, a significant advantage in the goals of one of the opponents took shape. As a rule, the inferior team tends to score a prestige goal. In many cases, she manages to do this. The winning club usually slows down and gives chances to pass the ball into their own net to the opponent.
By the 75th minute, the teams had the same number of goals. At the end of the game, the coaches send forwards and attacking midfielders to get the win.

All of the above scenarios occur most often in meetings of motivated teams. They will definitely have chances for a goal in the end. Even if the goal does not happen in the current match, it will definitely be in the next similar one. For every lost bet, there will be several won. If you set a flat or a percentage of the bank, depending on the coefficient, then we will be in the black in the long run.

When choosing a match for this strategy, it is imperative to take into account the weather forecast. If heavy rain or snow is expected, then such a duel is clearly not suitable. It is very difficult to create scoring situations on a viscous and slippery field. The number of dangerous moments can be counted on the fingers of one hand. Most often, goals in such cases fly after ricochets and look random.

Online betting

It is promising to bet on a goal in the final segment after 20-30 minutes of the game. By this time, you can be convinced of the high motivation of opponents and understand how much they are charged for the game. As a rule, teams that focus on attack tend to score after reaching the necessary advantage.

The coefficients, of course, can decrease or increase depending on the ups and downs of the game. Before the start of the meeting, it is important to determine the minimum odds at which it makes sense to bet. By determining the break-even point and the size of the bet, you can catch the most profitable quotes.

In it is very important not to succumb to excitement and learn to miss the match if the quotes for the events of interest are underestimated.

Promising for online betting will be fights in which the referee often takes out a yellow card. This speaks of the uncompromising nature of the match, in which the participants do not want to concede. The probability of a red card increases, which leads to dangerous moments at the gates of a team playing in the minority.

Bets on a goal in the last 15 minutes of a match in European competition

European Cup matches deserve a separate analysis. Group round matches and elimination games should be separated. In the Europa League and the Champions League, teams often score in the final stages of meetings. At the end, fatigue builds up, the fans drive their teams forward, and the number of dangerous moments increases rapidly.

The task of the bettor is to find clubs playing loosely in attack, which do not field five defenders and two defensive midfielders. The best option is the Dutch teams. They do not defend very well, but they carry out many dangerous attacks. At the end of the meeting, either they score or they score.

Do not take Italian teams or Atlético Madrid. They “dry” the game well, if a draw somehow suits them. Most often, such teams are more likely to play for a draw, even if it does not really fit into the tournament layout. In the last minutes of the game with their participation is often broken into small segments, and the number of dangerous moments is minimal.

In European play-off matches, the emphasis should be on the second legs. In the first matches in the final rounds, clubs devote more time to defense. It often happens that the hosts, having achieved a minimal advantage, do not go forward with great forces in the second half of the game. Guests can arrange a minimal defeat. They strive to keep such a score and not miss more, hoping to recoup at home.

In the second match, events can develop depending on the score in the first. If the difference in the score in the first match is more than one goal, then we can expect a productive game in the second leg. As a rule, there will be goals in the final segment of the meeting, especially in the confrontation between the attacking teams.

Number of matches and stakes for the strategy

On weekends, bettors can find up to 10 matches that are suitable for the betting strategy in question. There are a lot of matches in the group stages of the Europa League and the Champions League in the European Cup weeks. You can bet on those in which attacking opponents meet. Meetings with the participation of German, Spanish, Dutch, English clubs look promising.

Since the odds per goal in the last 15 minutes vary between 1.7 and 2.4, it is necessary to bet a percentage of the pot: from 4 to 6%. In no case should you use catch-ups after several consecutive lost meetings. The bettor's task is to find the most productive teams that have more than 30% of meetings, in the end of which goals were scored. Quotes must be in value. In this case, you can count on profit over a long distance.

Often there are situations when the decisive goal is scored in the last minutes of the match. The fans have a true feeling that the clubs score in the last minutes in almost every match. Not surprisingly, last-minute goals are not uncommon. In any championship, most of the goals are scored in the last five minutes of a football confrontation.

Five-minute goal stats

For a simple example, let's analyze the performance statistics of the Russian championship of the 2016-2017 model. From 85 to 90 minutes, the most number of goals (48) were scored. With such an interesting trend, there is a chance to make good money for a bettor. However, if you bet on each subsequent match, then the bank will begin to decrease, not increase. Analysts from bookmakers are well aware that the probability of a goal scored in the last five minutes of the match is extremely high, so the odds are slightly underestimated. To select events, it is necessary to take into account factors that affect the probability of a goal scored at the end of the meeting.

Criteria for selection of football matches

In most Live strategies, there are many criteria for selecting matches where a goal is expected at the end of the meeting. Therefore, we highlight eight main factors that will help bettors calculate the events they need for a potential bet:

1. There is a score difference of less than two goals. It is more efficient to place bets when there is a one or two goal advantage for the team. In this case, the opponent is eager to win back, so he actively goes on the attack, leaving his own rear uncovered. In this case, most of the goals are scored from counterattacks.

2. The outsider wins. Often there are situations when a conditional outsider is the first to score the ball into the opponent's goal and leads the score. At the same time, the outsider does what he “sets the bus” and tries to achieve the retention of the desired result. Of course, in almost all cases, the favorite wins back, reducing the match to at least a draw. It is also likely that the outsider will strengthen his own success by scoring in the last minutes from a counterattack.

3. Significant confrontation. This factor is unique to the derby. Regardless of the score, each team tries to score a goal. The favorite tries to defeat the principal opponent, and the conditional outsider tries to answer the favorite and also win. In any case, the fight continues until the last minute.

4. Position in the standings. For the group stages in European competitions, there is a regularity in the goal difference. For example, a team needs to win an opponent by two goals to advance to the spring playoffs. When the score is 1:0, the team will try to score a second goal in order to get the desired result. In this case, it is also not necessary to exclude the opponent's goal on the counterattack.

5. No goalkeeper. Often there are situations when the goalkeeper is removed from the field, and the coach has spent three substitutions. In this situation, there is nothing left but to put a field player on the gate. Under such a combination of circumstances, the probability of a goal being scored increases.

6. The total number of shots on goal. It makes no sense to bet on a possible goal if teams rarely shoot on goal. The more shots the teams have on goal, the greater the chance of a goal being scored.

7. Replacement attack players. In most cases, coaches decide to replace the attackers in the end of the game. This decision is inherent in coaches whose teams lose by one goal or simply want to catch a losing opponent on the counterattack. At the same time, the football player has a good chance to show his own potential and prove himself for participation in the first team for the next game.

8. Club motivation. Often in each championship there are motivated teams for each subsequent match. It does not make sense what score is on the scoreboard. The main thing is that the team is constantly tuned to score the ball and plays in the attack all 90 minutes of the match.

Generalization

If you stick to your own intuition, then there will be no benefit in betting. It is important to know eight aspects of a team's quality play in the last minutes of matches. At the same time, you need to wait for the right moment when the bookmakers put up the most suitable quotes for the goal scored. It is in the last 2-3 minutes that the teams completely go to the opponent's half, providing an excellent opportunity to score the opponent from a counterattack.

With a qualitative analysis and taking into account eight aspects, you can make verified bets on events, increasing your own bank.

If you have been actively betting on football for several months, then you have probably come across a situation where the bet wins, but loses due to a goal in the last minutes. There is a feeling that in the end they score more often. And it is true. In almost any football championship, most goals occur in the final five minutes.

Goal stats by minute

Let's look at the RFPL performance chart by time intervals of the 2015/16 season (the overall picture has not changed over the past years). Most goals are scored in the last 5 minutes.

If there is such a trend, then why not make money on it? But if you bet on every match, then you will quickly go into the red. The bookmakers also understand that in the end the chances of a goal being scored increase, so the quotes in the prematch line for outcomes are underestimated.

The team will not try hard to score in the end if the game is already done and the score is, for example, 3:0. Use a strategy in live, but before you bet, select matches, taking into account the following factors.

Event selection criteria

No. 1 - the difference in the score is less than 2 goals. The desire to score a goal with a minimal superiority of the opponent is greater than with a difference of 2-3 goals.

No. 2 - an outsider leads in the account. If the underdog wins by one goal, then it is likely that the favorite will bounce back and draw, and possibly win. Or he will forget about defense and miss on the counterattack.

No. 3 - a principled match. In confrontations Roma - Lazio or Liverpool - Everton, teams tend to score regardless of the outcome of the match. The leader wants to increase superiority, while the losing side wants to close the gap or score a prestige goal. Some derbies have a hundred-year history, so the players fight to the end.

No. 4 - position in the table. At the group stages of European competitions, there are situations when in the final round the club needs to beat the opponent with a certain difference, for example, 3 goals. If the team wins 2:0, then in the end they will try to put pressure on the opponent in order to reach the playoffs.

No. 5 - removal of the goalkeeper. Not all teams have worthy replacements for the goalkeeper position. And when a field player puts on the goalkeeper's shirt and takes his place, the bet on a goal suggests itself.

No. 6 - shots on target. It makes no sense to bet on a goal in the last minutes if the players never hit the goal during the match. The more hits on the target, the higher the chances of a goal.

No. 7 is a strong attacking replacement. Even if the team does not have the desire to hit the opponent's goal, the player who appeared on the field from the bench may have it. The player needs to prove that he deserves a place in the starting lineup.

No. 8 - statistics of opponents. In every championship there are strong-willed and weak-willed teams. Some often lose during the match, but win, while others, on the contrary, are not able to keep the gained advantage. Bet on the games of just such opponents.

How to place a bet?

Consider a bet on the example of bookmaker 1xBet. Open live mode by clicking on the corresponding tab on the top panel. Specify the sport Football. Select an event. The game time is indicated near the name of the event, so it is easy to find the right match.

Expand the painting. Please note that in a duel the time does not last 45, but 40 minutes. Study the teams, match statistics. Watch the broadcast. Everything points to the goal of the hosts, but for insurance we will play the total total more.

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In general, here you can definitely cheer yourself up. And it doesn't matter what kind of video jokes you like - we will help even a callous person without a sense of humor laugh.

If you like to watch football often, then you have probably seen a lot of goals in stoppage time. Sometimes your bet was held in the last second of the match, and sometimes it was the other way around. A goal in stoppage time robbed you of a win. If you think that the main number of goals is scored in the final segment of the match, then you are right.

If you break the game into time periods of 5 minutes, then the final five-minute period accounts for the most number of goals scored.

A similar situation is observed in all football tournaments and every year, if it changes, it is insignificant. Since such a pattern is not one-time, but constant, it makes sense to use it to make money. But do not rush to run to bet on all matches in a row, since such an approach is doomed to failure in advance. Let's analyze the criteria by which events will be selected for betting on goals in the final segment of the match.

1. Account difference

The advantage in the score at the close of the match should not exceed 2 goals. If the losing side needs only one goal to hold on to the points, then they will try their best to do it. When the outcome of the meeting is decided and the gap is more than 2-3 goals, then few people will waste their energy in vain.

Pay attention to an important nuance. If this is a two-match duel, then you need to take into account not the current score in the game, but the entire confrontation. The team can lose 0:3, but to reach the next stage, it only needs one goal.

2. Underdog wins

This happens with excessive passion for attacking actions. Footballers forget about defense and concede on the counterattack. In situations where the outsider scores first and leads in the score, there are high chances that the favorite will equalize or even make a comeback.

3. Derby or principled confrontation

If irreconcilable rivals or even eternal enemies are playing, then the desire to score a goal will not disappear even with a score of 4:0. And the team that loses will try in every possible way to score a goal of prestige.

4. Position in the standings

For example, in the group stage of European cups, in order to reach the playoff round, the team in the final round must beat the opponent with a difference of at least 3 goals. If in a duel she seizes an advantage of 2 goals, then by the end of the meeting she will definitely rush forward. He may not score, but here the enemy has a chance to catch the overworked team on the counterattack.

5. Too many shots on target

Let's move on to statistics. Of course, it would be foolish to bet on a goal before the final whistle if the opponents never hit the target. The more accurate shots, the higher the chances that the ball will reach the goal.

Read about how to bet on shots on target.

6. Removing a player

If the team has minus one player, it is more difficult for it to defend. But here the players begin to give all the best and run, as they say, "for themselves and that guy." With this nuance you need to be careful.

A great option is to remove the goalkeeper, especially if the coach has already used all the substitutions. No matter how well a field player stands in a frame, he is still not a goalkeeper.

7. Substitutions during the meeting

First of all, this concerns the exit of the player of the attacking plan. By the way, even if the teams have no motivation, it can be with an individual athlete who wants to prove himself by scoring a goal. Or it happens that the mentor decided to save the team leader. He was counting on an easy win, but it looks like he can't do without a better striker. The coach makes such a replacement - this increases the likelihood of a goal scored.

8. Team statistics

In every championship there are strong-willed and weak-willed teams that score and concede at the end of the match more often than others. It is in events with these teams that it is advisable to make such bets.

Summarizing

It is rather problematic to intuitively understand the most appropriate moment to bet on a goal at the end. Try to wait for the moment when quotes increase. It's a shame to monitor the event for a long time, but not have time to make a bet, since the goal has already happened.

Players often score after free kicks and set pieces, so if you're watching a live match with minimal delay, it would be a good idea to place a bet if you see something like this on the field. Naturally, the decision must be supported by analysis and correspond to the above factors.